• About that political environment.

    by  • January 27, 2010 • Uncategorized

    Things keep getting better and better.

    Most recently, the trend continued in Rasmussen’s latest poll testing the generic congressional ballot – ending the month where we started it with Republicans up 9. This means these results aren’t a simple outlier – that massive gap is real.

    Of course, we know Rasmussen is awful at this. After all, he was the first one to suggest Scott Brown actually had a chance in Massachusetts. Ha.

    But the big news came from the Triumverate of polling analysts – Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and Nate Silver.

    First off, liberal statistician Nate Silver:

    [I] think others are too conservative on projecting GOP gains. We don’t have a House model yet, but GOP seems as likely as not to take House.

    50/50? From Silver? I’ll take it.

    Next up, Charlie Cook:

    If this level remains constant, you can count on the Democratic majority in the House being toast this fall.

    Finally, Stu Rothenberg:

    In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority.

    It’s hard to find three more respected people in the political forecasting business than those three.

    And I’m liking what I’m hearing.

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