Third Base Politics has learned that David Arredondo, Vice Chair of the Lorain County Republican Party, is considering running for State Representative in the 56th district. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dan Ramos. Since the filing deadline has passed, Arredondo would need 400 signatures as an independent candidate by May 4.
The Lorain County district includes Amherst, Lorain, Oberlin, Sheffield Lake, Vermilion plus several townships and villages. This is a very tough district for Republicans to win, since it includes very Democratic Lorain. However, since redictricting, Amherst and Vermilion have been added and a portion of Elyria has been deleted. That should move it slightly in the red direction.
On the plus side, Arredondo is a well-known name throughout Lorain where the vast majority of the districts’ voters reside. His brother Joel, a Democrat, is President of Lorain City Council. 11 years ago, David’s wife Magistrate Michele Silva Arredondo, ran and lost a race for Lorain Municipal judge, so the name has appeared on the ballot. David Arredondo worked at Oberlin College for 12 years and knows many people there. Also, over the years he has done election night analysis for WEOL radio, appeared regularly on the Feagler and Friends Show, and written op-ed pieces for numerous publications so he has a marketable political identity.
Also, Ramos has benefited in the past from his Latino heritage in Lorain, but having another Latino on the ballot could neutralize that advantage. Since he can only run as an independent, it may allow some Democrats and moderates who would never vote for a Republican, to vote for him.
It is also very likely that Democrat turnout will be down this year, especially in Lorain and Oberlin, something that could hurt Ramos.
All that being said, it’s still a Democratic district and even if Arredondo makes it close, it’s still hard to imagine him winning. But I also know that if David does decide to enter the race, he will work as hard as he can to maximize his results.