• Oof. Quinny says Fitz still 12 points behind.

    by  • July 30, 2014 • Uncategorized

    We haven’t talked about polls much lately, so today’s release by Quinnipiac University is a great place to jump back into it.

    The top line result is good news for the governor and bad for Ed Fitzgerald:

    Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, the Democratic challenger in the race for Ohio governor, remains largely unknown and is gaining little ground against Republican Gov. John Kasich who leads 48 – 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    This compares to a 50 – 35 percent Kasich lead in a May 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

    Some more interesting tidbits:

    • Kasich dominates among men 53-31 but also is narrowly leading among women 43-41. So much for all the “Kasich hates women” garbage being spewed out of the Ohio Democratic Party.
    • Kasich leads 92-2 among Republicans. No base problems evident here. Tom Zawistowski hardest hit.
    • Ohioans approve of the job Kasich is doing 55-31, and think he deserves to be reelected 50-37.
    • 60% of Ohioans are satisfied with the way things are going in Ohio.

    Okay, so how is Fitzy doing? We have a photo of his face when told the results.

    Ed FitzGerald

    County Executive Ed FitzGerald is gaining little or no ground in his bid to unseat incumbent Gov. John Kasich. The Democratic nominee still has a long way to go with little more than three months until Election Day,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Almost two-thirds of registered voters don’t know enough about FitzGerald to have an opinion of him. That’s an awful lot of Ohioans who still have to be introduced to him. This survey was conducted during the period in which the Democrat had just begun his television advertising buy.

    Time is running out for Ed. The problem is, Ed doesn’t have much money to spend to introduce himself to voters. He just recently started with a relatively small television buy, and the ad was even described by his hometown newspaper as having “too little substance to rate”.

    This is just one poll, however. How about the rest? According to Real Clear Politics, a non-partisan site that tracks polls, their RCP average sits at Kasich +8.2. That is an average of 5 different polling firms, which all have Kasich with the lead, ranging from 6 to 12 points.

    The ODP has been touting a bunch of PPP (a Democrat polling firm) polls that show the race as neck and neck. However, even RCP doesn’t take them seriously. They were paid for by the ODP, and obviously skewed in Fitzgerald’s favor. Their numbers all fall way out of line from the rest of the reputable polling firms.

    The reason they are paying for these PPP polls is because Ohio Democrats are desperate to make people believe that Fitzgerald is actually competitive in this race, so that their donors (include the DGA) will open their wallets.

    That facade took a hit last week when Nate Silver’s outfit and the Washington Post both indicated that this race is not within Fitz’s reach. Today’s results from Quinny are an ever big blow to the fantasy that ODP is trying to project.

    Fitz’s campaign is still doing what it has been since they first announced last year. Floundering.


    About

    I was born and raised in Ohio. After growing up in the Columbus area, I moved to Cleveland to study at Case Western Reserve University, and have lived in Northeast Ohio ever since. I live in Wellington with my wife and son. I work in the private sector and have never worked in the political field.

    http://www.thirdbasepolitics.com