Recently, poll after poll keeps finding President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney here in the Buckeye State. There’s more than a few reasons for that—not the least of which is the completely biased sampling—but there’s one consistent stat from every recent poll:
Independents are siding with Romney.
- Fox News: Romney +4% among Independents
- Quinnipiac: Romney +1% among Independents
- Ohio Newspaper Poll: Romney +27% among Independents
- Public Policy Polling: Romney +2% among Independents
- Purple Strategies: Romney +10% among Independents
So what does that mean for this election? It’s going to be all about the turnout.
In 2008, Barack Obama carried Ohio not because he won Independent voters in droves (he was +8% among that group), but rather, because his campaign drove out the Democrat base, besting Republican turnout by the largest margin in decades.
2012 will not be 2008, and weighted for a more accurate turnout, the polls still show the race dead even. Even a moderate Democrat advantage in turnout could be enough to tip the scales to Obama.
In other words, a Romney win hinges on the ability of Republicans to turn out their fellow conservatives. That means you, me and every other person who actually cares about the future of our nation needs to talk to friends, family, church & social groups—everyone you know—about getting to the polls this November.
Despite all the money, lies and manipulation from the left, this election is going to come down to us and how badly we want real change in our state and nation.
We’re 40 days out. It’s time to crank it to eleven and get out the vote.