New poll: Renacci beating Sutton by 10 points, hits 51%

After last years redistricting process in which Ohio lost two congressional seats, a showdown was set up in the 16th congressional district. Longtime liberal and Pelosi puppet Betty Sutton was drawn into the same district as Jim Renacci, a self-made businessman serving his freshman term in Congress.

Sutton was elected to the old 13th district seat formerly held by Sherrod Brown, after he left it to join the Senate. This was a very blue district, and Betty Sutton is basically a female clone of Sherrod. This ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund highlights her left-wing voting record.

While some on the left have deluded themselves into believing that Renacci is losing the race, a new poll suggest just the opposite. From Wes Anderson with OnMessage Inc:

The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. Telephone interviews were conducted October 25, 2012. This survey consists of 400 likely general election voters and was stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%.

Bottom-line: Heading into the home stretch, this race is trending significantly toward Renacci. The ballot now stands at 51% for Jim Renacci to 41% for Betty Sutton. Only 7% of the electorate is still undecided.

Key Findings

  • The Presidential ballot is 50% Romney and 43% Obama with only 6% undecided. At this late point in the race, the 16th will most likely go for Governor Romney on Election Day by four or five points. We’ve seen a steady trend line of improvement for Romney in this district since the first presidential debate in early October.
  • That brings us to the ballot which is 51% Renacci to 41% Sutton with 7% undecided and 1% other. Keep in mind that our methodology is designed to capture those voters who have already cast a ballot as well as those likely voters who have yet to vote.
  • When we look at the ballot by partisanship we find an intensity gap favoring Renacci. Renacci is currently receiving the support of 91% of Republicans while Sutton is garnering just 78% of Democrats.
  • Independents currently break for Renacci 48% to 26% with 26% undecided.
  • By vote behavior (how do you usually vote) Renacci’s advantage with voters in the middle is even greater. Among Ticketsplitters (those who say they vote for both a mix of Democrats and Republicans) the ballot stands at 51% Renacci to just 35% Sutton.

Northeast Ohio conservatives will be thrilled to see Betty Sutton voted out of Congress.

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Author: Nick

I was born and raised in Ohio. After growing up in the Columbus area, I moved to Cleveland to study at Case Western Reserve University, and have lived in Northeast Ohio ever since. I live in Wellington with my wife and son. I work in the private sector and have never worked in the political field.

7 thoughts on “New poll: Renacci beating Sutton by 10 points, hits 51%”

  1. We chuckle every time we see the commercials attacking Renacci for being a “millionaire”. . .GOOD FOR HIM/MORE POWER TO HIM. . .there was a time in America where everyone desired a better way of life/to have as much income as possible and was even motivated to work hard; save/invest their money in order to achieve what used to be the American dream of being able to take care of yourself/your family; to live the good life!

    Now a days, thanks to folks like Betty Sutton, Sherrod Brown, Barack Obama, many Americans still want to live the “good life” only they want and expect someone else (you and me) to pay for it/make it possible!

    Our motto. . .redistribute our work ethic not our wealth. . .we educated ourselves/worked long and hard/didn’t live above our means and what we have achieved/have today is our American dream!

    Keep up the good work Mr. Renacci. . .we stand with you and will be voting for you as well!

  2. I pray that poll is correct Nick. I haven’t heard a peep out of Obama, Brown or Sutton about the recent notice about the intended move of Toledo Jeep to China.

  3. Key fact left out of this post: This is Renacci’s campaign pollster. You’re citing a Renacci campaign poll, and you didn’t mention that?

    You guys have ZERO credibility for trying to gloss over that fact.

    1. You keep bringing that up. It was written way before the election and with the important caveat of “if these numbers hold.”

      BTW, that’s your best response for trying to pass off a campaign’s own poll as objective evidence of how a candidate’s doing. Bring back Keeling. You’re horrible at this.

    2. You are a liar. There was no caveat and you weren’t referring to a poll. It was your prediction based on your judgment of what a horrible candidate Kasich would be.

      You claim we have no credibility, yet you are so obsessed with this blog that you can’t stay away. As long as you keep coming here, I will remind readers of YOUR credibility.

      Here’s the link to what Modern said, dear readers. You’ll see that he is lying.

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