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Quinnipiac: Kasich leads in Ohio. Rubio would beat Hillary, but Bush and Trump would lose.

rubio-bush-kasich-hillaryThere’s a new Quinnipaic poll out today.

The good news for Governor Kasich is that he leads the field in the Republican primary. Yes, even beating Donald Trump. Here is the breakdown among registered Republican voters:

Kasich: 27%
Trump: 21%
Rubio: 7%
Cruz: 7%
Carson: 6%
Fiorina: 5%
Bush: 5%
Huckabee: 3%
Paul: 2%
Santorum: 2%
Walker: 2%
Christie: 1%

I still think Trump-mania will fade over time and as other candidates drop out. My theory goes that Trump already is at his ceiling of support. As others drop out, most of their support is going to go to the other non-Trump candidates still in the race. I don’t believe Trump will be the nominee. Of course, everyone has been wrong about Donald Trump so far, so it’s anyone’s guess.

It’s not surprising at all that Kasich is leading here at home. What is a little surprising is how poorly a couple of other candidates are doing. Jeb Bush is in the middle of the pack and Scott Walker is getting almost no support at all here.

The bad news for Governor Kasich? In the two other large states Quinny polled for this study, Florida and Pennsylvania, Kasich is way down at 3% in each.

And while this may not count as “bad news” for Kasich, it certainly doesn’t help, Kasich may not be able to count on claiming that “Only I can deliver Ohio in the general election”.

That’s because Quinnipiac also tested three candidates head to head against Hillary (and others). They polled matchups of Hillary Clinton versus Trump, Bush and Rubio. Presumably, they didn’t include Kasich in the general election matchups because he isn’t polling high enough nationwide. However, not polling him against the Democrat in Ohio seems like a big fail to me.

In either case, Rubio is beating Hillary Clinton, but Hillary would beat Donald Trump or Jeb Bush here in Ohio.

Rubio 42 – Clinton 40
Bush 39 – Clinton 41
Trump 38 – Clinton 43

It’s pretty safe to assume that if Kasich had been polled against Clinton, he would also be winning in this poll. But so would at LEAST one other candidate, Marco Rubio.

The other eyebrow-raising information out of this poll is that Rubio and Bush are both beating Hillary Clinton…in Pennsylvania.

Rubio 47 – Clinton 40
Bush 43 – Clinton 40
Trump 40 – Clinton 45

Which brings me to my last point. Our side MUST win Ohio and Florida to win the White House. But if the GOP can take Pennsylvania off the table, it’s game over. I’ve made no secret that Marco Rubio is my #1 choice, and of the three large states polled in this survey, he is the only one to beat Hillary Clinton in all three.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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