Right now things are looking great for the Ohio Steves – Stivers & Chabot.
Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson are the question marks. All are in extremely tight races that are rated by most prognosticators as toss-ups or Lean R.
Ganley and Iott stand a chance, but they’ll need some heavy help from the Wave.
Corrigan up in Cleveland against Kucinich? Stranger things have happened.
Anyways, here’s some more from Rothenberg:
In wave elections, incumbents of the party at risk tend not to receive the votes of people who are undecided late, so most Democrats need to hold comfortable leads and be near the 50 percent mark if they are going to survive on Election Day.
[…]
While Republican and Democratic polls are often at odds in individual districts, national poll data appear to confirm the GOP poll numbers.
If Republicans do hold a 5-point to 7-point advantage in the generic vote among likely voters, independents strongly favor GOP voters and President Barack Obama ’s numbers are as low as they appear (particularly in swing districts), it’s difficult to believe Democratic candidates are running as well as some Democrats argue.
[…]
Many freshmen and sophomore House Democrats, who haven’t seen anything close to this kind of political environment and who won primarily because of the 2006 Democratic wave or the electorate of 2008 in swing and Republican-leaning districts, will be defeated.
Among the likely House Democratic fatalities in that category are Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy and Steve Driehaus , Florida’s Suzanne M. Kosmas and Alan Grayson , Debbie Halvorson (Ill.), Frank Kratovil Jr. (Md.), Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) and Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.).
Also in the same category, but with a slightly better chance of surviving, are Virginia’s Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye , Ohio’s Zack Space and John Boccieri , Arizona’s Harry E. Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick , Bobby Bright (Ala.), John Hall (N.Y.), Mark Schauer (Mich.), Patrick J. Murphy (Pa.) and Harry Teague (N.M.).
Speaker Boehner.
Get used to saying that.
Be the Wave.
