A new one released this morning shows John Kasich up 8, 50-42.
The crazy part? The party ID breakdown.
The sample included 41% Dems, 30% GOP, and 29% Independent.
Does anyone in Ohio really think the Democrats will have anywhere near that large an advantage on November 2nd? For comparison, the one seemingly legit exit poll in 2008, the CNN Exit Poll, had Ohio’s breakdown sitting at 39% Dem, 31% GOP, and 30% Independent. I don’t know about you, but with our massive enthusiasm advantage I don’t see those numbers being anywhere close to the same this time around.
But I digress. Let’s look at the poll.
The one outlier in this poll from the others released yesterday is the level of support for John Kasich. Per Rasmussen, Kasich has the base far more in his camp than the other polls. We’ll see if any subsequent polls can confirm what we see here from Rasmussen.
But Rasmussen is yet another poll that shows the low level of support for Ted Strickland. Continuing the trend we’ve been seeing all year, he’s still in the low 40s. I know I sound like a broken record on this, but that is very bad news for Strickland’s team. This late in the game, you can’t be performing that far below 50% as an incumbent – especially in a wave election like this one.
One other interesting result from the poll revolved around the Tea Party. While the Republicans and Democrats were expectedly split, by a margin of 59-16 Independents said the Tea Party movement was good for the country. And that’s despite only 18% of Independents considering themselves members of the movement.
So much for being a fringe group that deserves being attacked by the Governor and Chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, eh?