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Third Base Politics


Be nervous.

Politico is out with a story about Governor Corzine’s hiring of a senior Obama political advisor to ‘right the ship’ of the flailing campaign.

For the White House, it’s a crucial symbolic prize. With Democrat Creigh Deeds running far behind his Republican rival in Virginia, the New Jersey race – once believed to be hopeless for Corzine – is now seen as the White House’s best bet to make the 2009 election cycle a political wash and to calm the nerves of congressional Democrats approaching the crucial 2010 midterm elections.

As we’ve been discussing for months here on 3BP, New Jersey is a solid blue state, Virginia has been trending blue, and the 2009 elections for both will be seen as a reflection of the national mood.

So my problem with the above exerpt is with the final statement: “to calm the nerves of congressional Democrats approaching the crucial 2010 midterm elections.”

Congressional Democrats, I have a message for you. New Jersey is a blue state. Since the 2004 elections, Democrats have won each statewide election by an average of nearly 11 points.

And yet, the incumbent Democrat of this overtly blue state sits at a meager 40.8% on the RCP poll average.

Congressional Democrats, even if Corzine somehow pulls this out against the two candidates that the majority clearly prefer, your nerves should not be calm.

A victory for Corzine won’t make this a wash. It’s not that simple.

What should make you comfortable? A win Democrats in New Jersey are used to. Obama won by 15. Corzine won by 10 in ’05. Senate in ’06 was decided by 8.

Less than that is a failure. And a message.

Be nervous.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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Third Base Politics