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Third Base Politics


Breaking down the Ohio Poll

That sound you heard this morning was my yelp this morning after I saw the new Ohio Poll.

Good news. Check that. Great news.

As we mentioned earlier, Kasich is up 51-43 over Strickland, thereby doubling his lead from the last Ohio poll conducted at the end of September.

The two biggest takeaways are the two most obvious.

Kasich is over 50%.

Strickland is still flatlined.

Getting over that 50% + 1 barrier has to feel like a weight has been lifted off the shoulders of Team Kasich. While a couple other polls have shown the candidate as hitting that number before, getting confirmation from the Ohio Poll for the first time has to feel good. That said, the average on all polling for Kasich likely won’t quite reach 50% yet, but we won’t complain.

And of course there’s Strickland’s flatline.

That beautiful, beautiful flatline.

Since January, Strickland has failed to see much of a statistical fluctuation past 42%/43%. With 18 days to go, it’s great to see yet more confirmation that the Governor continues to go nowhere with his negative campaign. And with 18 days to go, it’s hard to see how Strickland can make up the ground necessary to win. Not only does he need every remaining Independent vote, but he needs to pull votes from Kasich. Can such an overwhelmingly convincing argument be made in such a short amount of time to so many? I find that hard to believe.

Especially when you consider the next number.

Most likely voters – 85 percent – say they will “definitely vote” for their current choice for governor on Election Day. Kasich leads Strickland, 56 to 41 percent, among these voters. The remaining 15 percent of voters say they “might change their mind” about their current choice. Among these voters, Strickland leads Kasich, 55 to 36 percent.

That has to scare the ever living hell out of Team Strickland. Not only does it show apathy among Strickland supporters, which makes it harder to actually get them to go and actually vote, but it also shows the votes they have aren’t even locked down.

Ultimately, this is just a poll. It’s a snapshot in time and there is no reason to believe this is exactly where the race stands. As always, we need to take all polls into consideration to get a true understanding of where things are right now.

According to Real Clear Politics, this is where we stand…

Now onto the Ohio Senate race.

My analysis: Portman is beating Fisher like a redheaded stepchild.

But seriously, this race has turned into an absolute buttkicking. He’s up by a mindboggling 58-36%. That jumps to 63-37% among the most likely to vote. There are now only two questions left.

1) How much will Portman’s domination help the other candidates seeking federal office (i.e. congressional targets)?

2) How much of Portman’s fundraising haul will he contribute to Ohio candidates and beyond to help ensure victory elsewhere and increase his profile?

In summary, there is still a lot of work to do and this is no time to get complacent. We have the wave with us, and we need to keep riding it ’til 11.2.10.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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