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Breaking it Down: The 7/5 Rasmussen Ohio Gubernatorial Poll

The gap widens.

In the new Rasmussen Poll, John Kasich is up 47-40 on his competition.

That increased lead for Kasich comes despite his opponent utilizing a 3-1 spending advantage and saturating the airwaves with attack after attack.

Anyone still think the Lehman attacks are going to work?

Didn’t think so.

But back to the poll.

There were several numbers within the crosstabs that jumped out at me:

  1. Kasich’s overall lead is now outside the margin of error.
  2. Kasich won nearly double the number of Democrats as Strickland won Republicans.
  3. This is the third straight month Strickland has won less than 80% of the Democratic Party vote. Additionally, 30% of Democrats disapprove of the job he’s doing as Governor. As you can imagine, these levels of disapproval within his own Party severely damage his ability to get out the vote in November.
  4. By 46%-29%, Ohioans believe the Tea Party movement is good for the U.S. That number jumps to 49%-18% among Independents. And yet, I bet the left won’t stop using foul language to describe members of the Tea Party.

Obviously, lots of good news within the poll.

The lead widens.
Low approval of Strickland stays stagnant.
And spending millions in attacks against isn’t working.

That’s what you get when you try to make a campaign about LeBron James.

UPDATE: After looking a little closer at the partisan breakdowns, you have to wonder how high the Democratic sample must be on the poll for Kasich to have only a 7-point lead.

The crosstabs show Kasich +72 within the GOP.
Strickland is only at +52 among Dems.
And Kasich is +17 w/Indies.

And yet Kasich is only up 7. For that to be the case, the number of Democrats tested in this poll must have been particularly high.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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