Well, the 5,272nd, and final, nail in the Brunner campaign’s coffin is complete.
Today, the folks at Quinnipiac unveiled their poll of 987 Ohio likely Democratic primary voters.
And it was incredibly bad news for Brunner.
Since Lee Fisher’s ads went up, Brunner has seen the margin between the two candidates more than double. Going from 7 to 17 in favor of Fisher.
Let there be no confusion. The sample for this poll by Quinnipiac is far and away different from the strangely sampled general election polls of previous months.
First, and more importantly, these are likely, not registered voters. In other words, these are the people who have an actual history of voting in primaries. Second, the sample, where we had the largest problem in their general election polls, isn’t skewed. These are all registered Democrats with a record of doing so.
So what numbers jumped out at me other than the topline?
Fisher crushes Brunner among women, 43-24. So much for a gender gap.
Despite just a moderate ad buy, Fisher’s name ID went from 33 one month ago to 52. And with an increased name ID came an increase in Fisher’s lead. Once again this shows how voters need to know a candidate in order to feel comfortable voting for him. Funny how that works, eh?
Fisher’s approval rating is still sky high, sitting at 41-7. In other words, he can only go down.
One response from the sample that will really upset the Brunniacs, by 6% Fisher is seen as more liberal.
But the killer number was from the question asking who had the best chance to win in November. Fisher crushed Brunner once again, 37-18.
Now where the Brunniacs may find solace is the relatively high number of undecideds and those that say they might change their mind.
Unfortunately for their cause, that means squat.
First off, those that haven’t yet decided haven’t been paying attention and very likely won’t even bother voting. Second, if they bother voting, their votes, at best, will be split down the middle between the two candidates. That’s a very simple rule of elections. In campaigns that don’t include an incumbent, undecided voters tend to split at the end. In incumbent elections, undecideds tend to split towards the challenger.
Finally, with the massive coverage this poll is already getting, Brunner’s team now has to fight the perception among their faithful that they even have a shot. Many may see these numbers and not even bother to show up on Tuesday.
Brunner is finished. Bring on Lee.