The final generic congressional poll from Gallup showed its 5th poll in a row showing a massive lead for Republicans in their race to take back the majority.
The consistency in the poll is of particular interest.
When a poll is that consistent, it’s hard to argue with its accuracy.
So what does a 15 point advantage mean?
Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
60+? Sounds ridiculous, right?
Surely, Gallup has to be wrong.
Wellll, history seems to side pretty heavily with the well respected pollster. Check out their accuracy over the years:
Tomorrow is going to be fun.
