Stuart Rothenberg, along with Charlie Cook, are the two names strategists from both sides respect.
They both stake their name, and in turn, their entire business on being right. And both are extremely successful.
Well, Rothenberg is out with his latest analysis of the U.S. House, and it isn’t good for Democrats:
We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.
Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
We’ve moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.
And what happened for Ohio Democrats in this analysis?
Their outlook worsened. All of them.
Betty Sutton appeared on the list for the first time. Considering the $2M Republican Tom Ganley brought into the race this past quarter, that’s no surprise.
Zack Space and John Boccieri became more vulnerable, moving from “Democrat Favored” to “Lean Democrat”
And the big news, Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kiljobs….er…Kilroy…moved from being a toss-up to Lean Republican.
The Mo is with the GOP.
