Some of you may have heard about a poll Daily Kos/Research 2000 recently conducted and released over the holiday.
It confirmed and enhanced what I’ve been saying regarding the voter enthusiasm problem Strickland faces in Ohio:
But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.
Needless to say, this is extremely bad news for Democrats hoping to stem the Republican tide in 2010.
Remember the Quinnipiac poll from earlier this month? 38% of Democrats didn’t have a favorable opinion of Ted Strickland, and a whopping 66% of Independents felt the same way.
That, along with this poll from the Daily Kos, doesn’t translate to good news for Strickland’s Get Out the Vote coordiator.