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Third Base Politics


It ain’t over yet. Seriously.

As I’ve discussed on this blog previously, there are several swing states that are required for McCain to secure if he wants to win this thing.

The first tier, i.e. the most difficult to win, include Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. The second tier, and slightly more favorable to McCain, are Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. With these states secured, mathematically McCain does not need to win other states many in the MSM seem to still be discussing like Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

How exactly do we pull this off? Check out this map…(click it to make it larger)

So, where do we stand in these tier 1 and tier 2 states? Well, it’s been a bad couple weeks, hasn’t it? We had the economy take a dropkick to the groin and our girl Sarah was bent over and spanked…and not in a good way. So we should expect that we’d be down pretty bad in our key states, right? Afterall, the national polls have shown everything from a 6-11 point deficit for Johnny Mac.

Well the fact is, things really aren’t that bad.

I’ve taken a look at the three most recent(and accurate) polls, per in the tier 1 and tier 2 states.

What’s the first thing you notice?

We’re losing. But you expected that. So what’s the other thing? Things seem pretty damn close, right?


There are a few scary outliers, like in Colorado…but for the most part McCain is in the lead or easily within grasp of the lead in every single state.

You may also be wondering why there are two tiers at all when all the polls seem awfully similar. Here’s why…the tier 1s are simply going to be more difficult to win…that’s it.

Ohio has been having troubles with their state GOP and we’ve got early voting to deal with. VA has been getting more blue in the northern part of the state. Colorado polls have been all over the map. Finally, in Nevada McCain is vulnerable on the all-important Yucca Mountain issue.

The tier 2 states don’t have issues as difficult as these and I expect them all to swing back with less effort than is required of the tier 1s.

But things are looking up, aren’t they? The economy(and George Bush with it) is out of the news and Sarah silenced every critic except the KosHeads.

So cheer up. This thing ain’t over.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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Third Base Politics