Yesterday, Ben Smith from Politico posted on some interesting numbers coming out of the Virginia Governor’s race. Republican Bob McDonnell’s lead has been growing over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Yesterday’s poll from Survey USA included some of the demographical breakdowns that oftentimes can read more into a race than the overall numbers.
It’s what the pollster figures as the composition of the electorate: 52% McCain voters, 43% Obama voters.
Obama carried Virginia with 51% of the vote, so the pollster’s data suggests that — if voters are responding accurately to questions about their plans to vote in the governor’s race — the electorate that Obama activated — young and African-American voters primarily — will sink back into passivity in the off years. Black voters were 20% of the electorate last November; they’re 17% in that survey.
There are two ways to read this: The poll’s sample is off; or this is a danger sign for Democrats heading into the midterms. If the latter, it may affect legislators’ calculations about how closely to align themselves with the president.
Are Democrats regressing in this key battleground state? Virginia, in some ways, is similar to Ohio. It went Republican in 2000 and 2004, but blue for the President in 2008. And in Virginia, just like Ohio, Democrats have taken over state government.
And now, if this poll is to be believed, those that went blue don’t want to admit it, are too apathetic to want to vote, or have simply left.
If this same phenomena happens in Ohio, Strickland’s days may be well be over.