The Hill, one of the prominent daily political newspapers in DC, has conducted 12 Independent polls of the most vulnerable freshmen Congressmen.
Mary Jo Kilroy can start packing her things.
Kilroy is nine points behind Stivers, the 2008 Republican nominee, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. She received 38 percent to his 47, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided.
Her biggest problem appears to be among independent voters. The poll found Stivers beating Kilroy among independents by nearly a 2-1 advantage, 46 percent to 25.
38% with less than four weeks to go? Game. Set. Match. And those Independent numbers? Ouch.
This one is done. But please, Democrats, keep contributing to Mary Jo. I like to see money wasted.
Jim Renacci’s race against John Boccieri is much closer.
Boccieri trails his Republican challenger by just three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 15 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.
But dissatisfaction with Congress in this district is high, particularly among independents. Eighty-five percent of independents strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing.
Even though the race is close, the remaining undecided voters are largely Republican and independent, making it tough for Boccieri to make up much ground. Just 14 percent of remaining undecided voters are Democrats, while 33 percent are Republican and 41 percent independent.
And once again, the key number here is Boccieri’s 39% level of support as an incumbent. It’s far too late in the game to be that low. I think we’ll see this one break hard towards Renacci late.