Currently, if the election were held today, Quinnipiac has the numbers as follows:
Florida: 44% Romney, 43% Obama
Pennsylvania: 39% Romney, 47% Obama
Ohio: 42% Romney, 44% Obama
So, that puts Obama in the lead in two of these critical swing states for an electoral advantage of 38 to 29, as of today. But oh, what a difference just a few short months can make.
In political polling, it’s generally accepted that if a sitting office holder isn’t over 50% early on, they’re going to have some struggles. Reason being, they don’t have half of the electorate already backing them, and it’s going to be tough for an incumbent to move even a few percentage points.
But let’s not focus on the political grandiosity and take a look at the numbers. From the same time period just two years ago, here’s what the political landscape looked like:
, Quinnipiac had then-Governor Charlie Crist beating Republican up-and-comer Marco Rubio by 37% – 33% in a three-way race for U.S. Senate.
, they had then-Senator Arlen Specter with a 47% – 39% lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.
And in Ohio
, then-Governor Ted Strickland led Republican John Kasich by a margin of 44% – 38%, and Lee Fisher had a 40% – 37% lead over Rob Portman for U.S. Senate.
Of course, we all know what happened in those races. Rubio beat Crist in that three-way race by an astounding 49% – 30%, Specter was upset by Sestak 54% – 46%. And we all know about the Ohio results.
Kasich bested Strickland 49% – 47% and Portman stomped Fisher with a 57% – 39% drubbing. All of this, even after each of the eventual victors was down as late as May 2010.
If history has anything to say about it, Obama’s reelection chances are dwindling more and more each day. But even if you’re not a fan of history repeating itself, the numbers out of the Quinnipiac poll today show just how much Obama struggles against Romney, and on multiple fronts.
Who do you think would do a better job on the economy? In Florida, that’s 49% – 40% in favor of Romney. It’s a 47% – 43% Romney advantage in Ohio. Obama’s only lead comes in Pennsylvania with a slim 44% – 43% lead.
How about whether Obama’s signature piece of legislation—the healthcare reform law—should be repealed? Obama loses that argument by margins ranging from 4% to 15% in every state.
The situation gets even worse when you drill down into the numbers. As could be expected, Obama leads self-described Democrats in all three states, but he’s losing the all-important Independent vote by a margin of 41% – 38% in Florida, and 43% – 38% in the Buckeye State.
His only lead comes in Pennsylvania (45% – 36%), where many in the Keystone State are still getting to know Romney after their native son, Rick Santorum, bowed out of the race. So those numbers are bound to improve over the coming months.
And to add insult to injury, Republicans are way more excited that Democrats to vote in the 2012 elections as compared to past presidential elections, with GOP advantages in that category ranging from 10% to 22%.
To put it plainly, Obama cannot win reelection by alienating those in the middle, and he’s already behind the GOP frontrunner, who, after a drawn out primary, hasn’t even ramped up his general election campaign.
Obama might be ahead today, but the numbers and enthusiasm gap are certainly not on his side for that lead to still be there come November.
Follow GOHP Blog on twitter at: