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Odds not in favor of FitzGerald

New predictions are out from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and there’s no way democrats can be happy about it. Silver’s blog looked at more than 25 gubernatorial races and calculated the odds of democrats winning.

Let’s take a closer look at the diagram posted earlier today.


There are 10 races that show between a 25%-75% chance of democrats winning and almost all fall below a 50% chance. And where does Ohio fall on the diagram…less than a 25% chance of winning for democrats. This isn’t some amateur hour prediction either. Silver has a record of accurately predicting political races.

So what does this mean for FitzGerald’s campaign? Well, it isn’t a secret that the DGA has limited resources compared to the RGA. After Ed’s flop of a campaign rollout and lack of fundraising skills shown in February’s campaign finance reports, the DGA stood strong and continued to support his race. The spokesperson for the DGA even went as far to say Ed will have the [DGA] resources and will be positioned to win.

It’s hard to imagine the DGA will invest significant resources if any at all to support Ed’s less than impressive odds. The smart move to make is to cut their losses early and focus where they actually have a chance of winning.

Worth noting is the gubernatorial race in Michigan. The DGA started attack ads against Republican Governor Rick Snyder more than a year ago in June of 2013! They’ve released more videos since then with the latest two videos released earlier this month on July 3rd. So where’s all the DGA resources positioning Ed to win in Ohio?

Silver has predicted Republicans will lose no more than three gubernatorial seats. Clearly Ohio isn’t included in that count. So how long before the DGA gives up on Fitzy?

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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