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Third Base Politics


Ohio Attorney General race = Game Over

This is the sound of Richard Cordray’s chances in November.

With a new poll conducted by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies, Mike DeWine might as well start his gig at the Ohio AG offices tomorrow.

I had the opportunity to take part in a media conference call with the DeWine camp to go over the new poll. According to the numbers, DeWine leads 50-32.

But it’s the crosstabs that are particularly interesting. Completely refuting the theory that strong Republicans won’t support DeWine, 66% of them say they will “definitely” support the former Senator. Compare that to the 60% of Strong Dems that “definitely” support Cordray and it’s clear that DeWine’s support is more enthusiastic among the base. Further reinforcing the point is that total support for DeWine among those who identified as “Strong Republicans” is an impressive 96-3. Comparitively, Cordray has 84% support.

Showing that Independents aren’t just breaking for Kasich and Portman, DeWine wins them 48-22. Interestingly enough, Newhouse stated Scott Brown had the same 2-1 advantage among Indies when he polled up in Massachusetts.

Based on the sample size, the question not involving any type of push polling, and Newhouse’s fantastic track record, it would be hard for anyone to not find these results legitimate.

It’s safe to say a gap this massive will make raising funds even more difficult for Cordray to mount a credible defense of the seat. And whatever funds he does raise will most definitely go towards negative/comparitive ads, as is always necessary when down so significantly.

A side benefit of DeWine dominating this race is that it prevents Cordray from influencing the Ohio House races the way he was able in 2008 when in the last couple weeks he filtered $500k to a couple House races that were won by just 1000 or so votes. Instead, every cent he has will have to go against DeWine.

As I’ve been saying for months – Mike DeWine being elected AG has been inevitable – and that’s thanks to one person and one person only – Mike DeWine. He built the right relationships over his 30 year political career and has deftly used them to his great advantage in this race. His name ID is off the charts and, without an October surprise of sorts, insurmountable to overcome.

The bad news? This means the ODP will be able to spend a little more cash on Strickland, Pepper, et. al.

A screencap of the poll can be seen by clicking on the image below.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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