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Ohio Poll Buys In To Liberal Media Bias

It’s pretty well known that the national media has been going to bat for President Obama this election season.  If there was any doubt about that, it was swept away by last week’s coverage of Romney’s ‘47%’ comment all while the White House lied and covered up details on the murder of an American ambassador in the Middle East.

Statistically, the liberal bias was evident in the recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, where the pollsters thought a 38% Democrat, 28% GOP, 32% Independent turnout was a representative sample.  I’ll just go out on a limb here and predict that if Republicans–in a presidential election year–turnout only a quarter of the electorate, then yes, Obama wins.

That won’t happen–Republicans are too energized to only make up a quarter of all voters.  So chalk it up to the liberal bias of the national media.  In fact, releasing such polling played right into Obama’s convention strategy.

But I didn’t think the Ohio media would buy into that messaging.  Yet, that’s exactly what happened with this weekend’s Ohio Newspaper Poll:

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points — 51 percent to 46 percent — among likely voters in the first Dispatch/Ohio Newspaper Organization poll of the 2012 election season.

A 5-point lead?  Only a month out from the election?  Wow, guess it’s time to pack it in, huh?

Of course, that’s before you look at the (limited) data behind the poll.  The voter turnout sample?  48% Democrat.

That bears repeating: the Ohio Newspaper Poll wants you to believe that nearly half of those casting their ballots this November will be Democrats.

How anyone thinks that is a real possibility is absolutely ludicrous.  No party has had over a 40% turnout in decades.  48% Democrat turnout is about as likely Barack Obama actually owning his abysmal record.

But for Obama to be winning in the Ohio Poll, he needed that 48%, because he’s losing Independent voters 2 to 1:

 As would be expected, each candidate has overwhelming support from people in his party, with Obama claiming 94 percent of people polled who identified themselves as Democrats, and Romney, 91 percent of Republicans. Among independents, Romney had 54 percent, more than twice the percentage for Obama. [Emphasis ours].

Obama is losing the Independent vote and the media knows it.  Thus the excessive Democrat oversampling.  And thus the liberal media spin.

Statistics don’t lie.  And when polls are measured on realistic expectations this election, Obama finds himself under water in the Buckeye State.

Go figure.  Apparently killing jobs isn’t too popular among voters.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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