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Third Base Politics


Quinnipiac: Guess what – Ted is still in the low 40s.

I know. Shocker, right?

The good news for Ted? The lead shrank.

Rather than 51-41, we’re at 49-43.

This Quinnipiac poll simply asks the straight up questions about support and favorables, so we don’t get to see how anyone’s mind has changed on the issues, but what’s the point? We’re a week out.

So what were we able to learn? They confirm what we saw in the Ohio Poll – partisans have largely decided and are leaning strongly to their respective candidates.

Strickland has surprisingly shrunk his deficit among Independents from the last poll, but considering the saturation of the airwaves thanks to Our Future Ohio, I guess I shouldn’t be that shocked. His lead among Indies mirrors what we saw in the Ohio Poll, which is a good thing – up between 5 or 6.

If you look at the CNN exit poll in 2008, where Obama won Ohio 52-47 under a Democratic wave, percentage-wise we saw partisan results much like what we see today, but with Obama winning Independents by 8. If Kasich can keep even half of his lead among Independents, we should be in good shape. Considering Strickland’s favorables among Independents are still absolutely awful – only 38% have a favorable opinion – it’s hard to see how he can pull enough away from Kasich in the last week.

Overall, if we combine Quinnipiac with the most recent Ohio Poll we get a Kasich lead of about 4 points and the incumbent sitting at 45%. With a week to go, and what the Ohio Poll said is a 12 point enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans, that isn’t good news for the Governor. Nor is early voting that shows Democrats not getting near the support they need to hold onto the Governor’s mansion.

Or think about it this way.

Would you want to be in the Governor’s position? He’s an incumbent Governor with underwater approval numbers who is stuck at 45 in the RCP average with 7 days to go and the enthusiasm gap massively against him.

Make no mistake. Any optimism you see from the left is simply a fabrication or sheer ignorance of the reality of their situation.

But we’ll see in seven days, won’t we?

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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