Below we mentioned Nate Silver’s update of the probability of a Kasich win. The New York Times numbers guru showed our GOP candidate currently enjoying an 85.8% chance of victory in a little less than four weeks.
But earlier this afternoon Silver added a bit of commentary to the state of the race that’s going to disappoint some Democrats.
Some polling in Ohio last week had suggested that the Democratic incumbent, Ted Strickland, was pulling into a rough tie with his Republican opponent, John Kasich, spontaneously overcoming what had been about a 10-point deficit.
The model, however, was cautious about taking those numbers quite at face value. And this week, that looks prudent, since three new polls have come out showing Mr. Kasich still holding an advantage of 6 to 9 points. Obviously, Mr. Strickland could still win ….. But the lesson is not to jump to conclusions. Especially at this stage of the campaign, things like changes in advertising spending patterns can touch off short-lived bounces in the polls.
It seems that Strickland’s massive surge in spending on commercials only paid off for a short time. And as Silver states, the new polls this week confirm that.
Kasich will be smart to do everything he can to keep Strickland’s level of support as flatlined as it has been all year. As long as Strickland stays decently below the magic 50% number, and Silver’s best analysis of that support shows it at 41.5%, undecideds will do what they always do, break towards the challenger. That goes even moreso in a wave election like the one we’re about to experience.
27 days, people. Keep working.