Below you will find my latest electoral map prediction for Nov4. Clicking on it will enlarge it for easier viewing.
As you can see, I have McCain winning in a squeaker. There are several must wins for John McCain…
Colorado: While this state has voted Republican since 1996, it currently is too close to call. According to Pollster.com, Obama currently has the edge 45-42, but that includes some recent suspect polling(cough cough! ZOGBY! cough!). Rasmussen and Quinnipac have shown recent slim leads for McCain.
Nevada: Pollster.com recently has the average of the polls at 45-42.5 in favor of McCain. Once again, a Zogby poll skews the results a bit. McCain’s focus on nuclear energy and the Yucca Mountain issue may cause problems as we approach Nov4, so keep a close eye on this one.
Virginia: The influx of blue staters into the northern part of Virginia has made my current home state start to turn slowly from red to blue. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine’s success have shown the Dem trend in the state that McCain needs to fight. With that being said, VA has been a GOP presidential stronghold for decades. Pollster.com currently has a 1.5% lead for Obama.
Ohio: My HOME state. As the saying goes, So Goes Ohio, So Goes the Nation. This one is going to be a doozie. Virtually all recent polls show a statistical dead heat…except for Zogby. I’m a little worried the new ‘early voting’ policy will provide a clear advantage for Obama.
The states I’m counting on, but are far from being locked up are Indiana, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. McCain will have to spend a bit of cash in each one to maintain his lead, but at the end of the day these should be solidly red.
In my scenario much of the Midwest is left as Obama country. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all blue. By no means does that mean I feel McCain doesn’t have a shot here, I just think this is where Obama will end up unloading most of his cash (plus Ohio). They are expensive states for paid media and politically complex. McCain simply won’t have the money or organization to compete in all four. However, if just one can be wrestled from Obama’s hands it puts McCain in a much better situation.
So there you have it. Obviously things will fluctuate as we move forward so this map of mine may evolve over time.
Please feel free to forward your thoughts or comment below. Also, give the map a shot yourself at http://www.270towin.com/.