A new poll on the presidential election hit this morning, giving Obama a 50% to 45% edge over Romney in the Buckeye State. With other polls showing the race much, much tighter, something just ain’t right about that +5% Obama advantage.
So, as always, we looked at the numbers.
Quinnipiac has the race broken down with Democrats siding with Obama 92% – 6%, Republicans with Romney at 91% – 7%, and Independents favoring Romney 49% to 43%. As we’ve said before, Independents are where elections are won, and almost every poll shows Romney clearly has the edge in this category. But despite Romney being up 6% among the key electoral demographic, Obama is winning Ohio by 5%?
Something just ain’t right. Especially if you understand statistics.
If you run those numbers through the same turnout as in 2008–a historically high turnout year for Democrats that won’t be repeated this year–Obama leads Romney by a 49.6% to 46.7% margin, or just 2.9%. That’s the poll’s margin of error.
In other words, Quinnipiac seems to think that Democrats are going to turnout in droves, and Republicans are going to stay home. Apparently they’ve missed the headlines on GOP enthusiasm as of late. What’s worse for Democrats, if they turnout at their ten-year average, Obama’s lead shrinks even further to just 0.6%.
That’s right, if history is any indicator, as of today, the race stands at 48.4% Obama, 47.8% Romney. Which means the undecided voters get to decide who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years. And any expert will tell you, if you’re undecided a week from Election Day, 9 out of 10 times, you break for the challenger.
To put it another way, if Obama hasn’t sold you yet on the last four years, he’s not going to earn your vote for another four.
At the end of the day, Democrats can hang their hats on the Quinnipiac numbers, but they’re simply inaccurate. Here in Ohio, Romney’s up 6% with Independents and down overall, which doesn’t make sense, but in Virginia, Quinnipiac has Romney up over 20% with Independents, and still down overall.
Something just ain’t right.
But as any good Republican knows, the only poll that matters comes out in just 6 days. Regardless of what the polls, political analysts, and politicians say, this race is going to be close and it’s up to you and I to drive the vote.
So tell your friends, tell your family, tell the guy down the street you met that one time at the church blood drive–tell everyone–to get out and vote. This election will truly come down to each individual and their opinion on the direction of this country. Ohio, and the nation, cannot afford four more years like the last four years.
Let’s do this thing.
