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Third Base Politics


The nation is waking up.

Even Quinnipiac says so.

In just one month, the President’s job approval rating shifted by 9 points, going from +5 to -4. At 44-48 approval to disapproval, this is “his worst net score ever”. From just one year ago, Obama’s shift among Independents is a net negative change of -29.

Bad news also came from another big question – would you vote for President Obama or a generic GOP candidate for President. By 39-36, the Republican wins. While I’m happy to see a generic GOP candidate winning, that’s not the important part of the equation. It’s a lot easier for generic candidates to win vs real-life candidates that have real records and real problems. In fact, what I’m particularly happy about is that Obama is only winning barely more than 1/3 of the vote. That’s a very clear referendum on where he stands right now.

Even worse for the President, that 36% shrinks to 27% when asked of the all-important Independent vote.

The generic congressional vote shows Republicans up +5. The lead is a +11 improvement from the last poll for Republicans. Even better, Republicans are +15 among Independents. This should help cool off those on the left that were so excited by the upshift in the recent Gallup generic poll.

Another interesting result came from asking about approval of Republicans and Democrats in Congress. For a few months we’ve seen Democrats substantively ahead on this front. This led many to suggest that the GOP wasn’t providing a viable alternative. Well, this new poll shows both Dems and the GOP statistically even. And that’s bad news for the Party in power.

Other bad news for the President and the Party in power?

  • 27% are satisfied with the way things are going in the nation today.
  • Just 39% approve of the President’s work with the economy.
  • 41% approve of his handling of the Gulf Oil Spill.
  • 30%(!) approve of his work with illegal immigration.

The Tea Party is still a winner, with 33-31 approval. That number jumps to 39-28 among Independents. Do Dems really think vilifying a movement where not even 1/3 of the people disapprove is a winner?

My LOL moment of the poll? The question asking whether the President campaigning for a candidate would make them more or less likely to vote for the candidate.

Only 12% said more likely. 30% said less likely. Among Indies that jumped to 12-35.

My “a lot of good this does us now” moment of the poll? By 37-35, voters think we’d be better off with John McCain in office right now. That jumps to 38-27 among Indies.

Ultimately, this is a no-good, awful, crappy poll if you’re a Democrat.

And the best part? The sample was registered voters. Registered voters traditionally lean further left than likely voters.

The nation is waking up.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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Third Base Politics