It’s not smart to argue with Charlie Cook. The non-partisan political analyst is rarely wrong and has built a business off of being right.
So with that in mind, this is bad news for Democrats:
“I think Republicans are going to get the House back,” he said flatly in a conversation taped for WSJ.com’s “Big Interview” segment, which will be posted on the site Friday morning.
To be precise, Republicans need to win 39 Democratic seats to get control of the House, and Mr. Cook’s current estimate is that they are in line for a 35- to 45-seat gain. “But frankly, I think we’re being very conservative with that,” he added. “The odds of it being higher than that range are a lot better than lower.”
Obviously, the big news here is that he firmly predicts, for the first time, that Republicans will win the House.
But what caught my attention was his statement about the odds being in favor of Republicans winning more than 45 seats.
Obviously, a win under Cook’s scenario means Ohio Democrats like Kilroy, Driehaus, and Boccieri are gone.
But if we start inching beyond the 45 seat expectation, as Cook expects, that brings Space, Wilson, Sutton, and Kaptur firmly into play.
The DCCC may have a lot of cash, but that doesn’t mean they should be trying to save every single vulnerable seat.
The smart play is to abandon those that are doomed and give the money to those that can make some use of it. The Titanic is sinking and there simply aren’t enough lifeboats.
And yet, watch as they spend more money on Paula Brooks’ challenge of Pat Tiberi.