Since I didn’t get a chance to provide much of a substantive look into the Rasmussen polls that came out recently, I did want to point out two items of interest. This gets into the weeds a bit, so if poll analysis bores you, move on to the next post. Ha.
First, as I’ve mentioned before with Rasmussen, and also finally discussed by the Columbus Dispatch a couple weeks ago, the Rasmussen sample once again seems skewed towards Democrats.
Now, of course, this goes against everything we hear about Rasmussen, right? He’s supposed to have his biases and whatnot.
But if that’s the case, how do you explain this?
Kasich wins Republicans 88-7. Or +81.
Strickland wins Democrats 74-12. Or +62.
Kasich wins Independent voters 52-28. Or +24.
Massive superiority in winning his base, overwhelming victory among Indies, and yet Kasich is only up 8? That simply doesn’t compute unless Democrats are heavily weighted.
Second, for the first time we get a look at what happens when leaners are included in polling. For the unititiated, normally leaners are defined as those who intially answered ‘unsure’ when asked for whom they plan to vote, but then are asked once again to provide an answer. These leaners tend to be the people least likely to vote and those who don’t pay attention or don’t make up their mind until soon before election day. Traditionally, these types of voters follow the mood of the nation/state and will break towards the challenger or incumbent based on their positive or negative perceptions.
Conventional wisdom would therefore state that leaners would break towards Kasich.
And they are.
When leaners are included, Kasich’s lead is bumped up two points to 52-42, above the magic 50% plateau.
But the Party breakdowns make this increased lead even more interesting.
Among Democrats, Strickland goes from 74-12 in the original poll to 78-15 among leaners. In other words, among Democrats Strickland only won 4 for every 3 that went to Kasich.
Among Independents, Kasich went from 52-28 to 60-30. In other words, Independent leaners broke towards Kasich by a 4-1 margin.
Think any of these people have been effected by Ted’s repeated attacks? Didn’t think so.
Keep it up, Governor. We’re loving your strategy.