In 2008, Obama won deep blue Massachusetts by 26 points.
A little more than a year later, a Democrat lost by 5.
A 31 point swing.
What was Obama’s margin in purple Ohio in 2008? 4 points.
So, if deep blue Massachusetts can swing 31 points, what are the chances purple Ohio can swing by 5?
Pretty. Damn. Good.
A fun, yet completely implausible, stat that I also noticed last night was this:
If all 435 House districts moved 31% like MA did, the next House would have 342 Rs (+164) & 93 Ds (-164).
You’ll also recall some numbers I pulled from the PPP poll on Monday:
In the poll, PPP found that 20% of Obama voters are now voting for the Republican.
If we translate that to Ohio’s result in 2008, and have 20% of Obama’s voters switch from Democrat to Republican, Obama goes from winning Ohio by four points to losing 57-41.
Now how about we give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, and cut that switch in half? Going from 20% switching to only 10% switching. In that scenario, McCain wins Ohio 52-46.
This means that without a drastic change in the narrative of the race, it’s with great likelihood that we’ll see this scene at the Kasich Victory Party on 11.2.10.