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Third Base Politics


What does Massachusetts mean for Ohio?

In 2008, Obama won deep blue Massachusetts by 26 points.

A little more than a year later, a Democrat lost by 5.

A 31 point swing.

What was Obama’s margin in purple Ohio in 2008? 4 points.

So, if deep blue Massachusetts can swing 31 points, what are the chances purple Ohio can swing by 5?

Pretty. Damn. Good.

A fun, yet completely implausible, stat that I also noticed last night was this:

If all 435 House districts moved 31% like MA did, the next House would have 342 Rs (+164) & 93 Ds (-164).


You’ll also recall some numbers I pulled from the PPP poll on Monday:

In the poll, PPP found that 20% of Obama voters are now voting for the Republican.

If we translate that to Ohio’s result in 2008, and have 20% of Obama’s voters switch from Democrat to Republican, Obama goes from winning Ohio by four points to losing 57-41.

Now how about we give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, and cut that switch in half? Going from 20% switching to only 10% switching. In that scenario, McCain wins Ohio 52-46.

This means that without a drastic change in the narrative of the race, it’s with great likelihood that we’ll see this scene at the Kasich Victory Party on 11.2.10.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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