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Third Base Politics


What to watch for tomorrow

So where do we stand? Well, things couldn’t be much more confusing. You have polls from the key swing states saying things are as close as ever…then you have national polls telling you it’s going to be a blowout. People are walking back and forth from the ledge so often that they are wearing out the soles on their shoes.

But, in my altogether completely insignificant opinion, I haven’t felt this good about the election since before Fannie Mae went down the crapper a few weeks ago.

While the RCP poll average currently shows a 6 point lead for Barack, the polls that are most well respected and have historically been the most accurate show things tightening. Undecideds seem to be breaking for McCain. In my opinion, the only thing that can stop a McCain victory is early voting. The question ultimately is, of all the new registrations, did they turn out and did they vote overwhelmingly for Obama? If so, Obama should have this thing locked up.

I solidly believe several states currently identified as swing states by the media, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Indiana…will break for McCain. Therefore, if McCain is to win he needs to win a mixture of Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado. We don’t need all, but we do need a certain mix of them. Now McCain may win all four or none of them, but what would the map look like if he were to barely pass the 270 vote threshold? There are two scenarios with both based on Ohio as a must-win.

But enough talking about the what ifs…let’s look at the pretty pictures.

In my opinion, this map is the most likely scenario. Virginia and Colorado will fall, but Pennsylvania and Ohio go red giving McCain 273 votes.

The other viable winning scenario for Mac?

Pennsylvania falls. If this happens a Virginia AND Colorado win is an absolute must.

So as you sit down in front of your TV tomorrow, remember the first states to worry about are Virginia and Pennsylvania. McCain must win one of them. If he wins both, this thing is over.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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Third Base Politics