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Good news and bad news in latest polls

First, the bad news. Two recent polls are trending in the wrong direction on Issue 2.

PPP released a poll last week showing the “NO” side is back out to a 20 point lead, 56-36. In August, the gap had closed, but now its opened again. Obviously, the constant stream of mistruths being put out by the enormous amount of out-of-state cash “We Are Ohio” has to work with is scaring some voters towards voting no. There are still reasons to believe that the November results will be close, though.

First, we have the usual problems with PPP’s ridiculous sampling. Using a more realistic turnout model like we did here, the results become 53-39. Still, in August, that result was down to 7 points.

Second, PPP is still polling “registered voters”, not “likely voters”. Likely voter models are more predictive of who who actually go out and vote, and usually leans more conservative.

Third, the poll didn’t use the Issue 2 ballot language. It still references “rights.” As we have discussed, collective bargaining is not a right. It is a privilege given to a special group by the legislature. If it was a right, everybody would have collective bargaining power. They don’t. The word “rights” evokes an emotional response. Since the word “rights” doesn’t appear on the Issue 2 ballot, that may be skewing the results some.

Fourth, GOHP Blog reminds us that issue polling can be difficult and unreliable.  Take a look back at 2005 at how horribly wrong the polls were for the “Reform Ohio Now” issues.  Polls showed the issues passing by huge double digit margins.  But on election day, they were all soundly rejected.

Today’s Quinnipiac poll reports similar results.

Now, onto the good news, which is Issue 3. The proposed amendment to the Ohio Constitution appears set to be approved, according to both polls. This health care freedom amendment was the largest all volunteer petition effort in Ohio history. As an amendment to the Constitution, it will also be unique among all 50 states, and give Ohio even better standing when the ridiculous Obamacare mandate gets settled in the courts.

Quinnipiac shows support for the amendment at 48-45. This is where the two polls diverge, however. PPP shows the amendment passing by an overwhelming 55-24 margin, and that’s without our correction to PPP’s sample.

[Update: DOH! Trying to work too quickly and pulled up the wrong Quinny poll.  Issue 3 was not asked about in their latest.  The link to today’s Quinny poll has been corrected above.]

Since some of us here at 3BP were personally involved with the Issue 3 volunteer effort, that brings a lot of personal satisfaction.

Getting back to Issue 2, what’s common in both polls is that voters overwhelming approve of some of the core features of Senate Bill 5 that would save cities and schools money. For example, by 60-33 percent, voters agree with requiring government employees to pay 15% of their health insurance premiums. (The private sector pays about twice that.) Voters also approve of asking public employees to pay 10% towards their pension funds by a margin of 58-33. Voters also approve of using merit as a basis for raises instead of just longevity, by a 21 9 point margin.

Unfortunately, the lies about safety and other such fear mongering obviously has voters confused, because it is obvious that they see a need for reforms.

Republicans and independents need to ask themselves this:

Who do you trust to make the final spending decisions for your city or school district? The people that you elected? Or the union bosses and unelected arbitrators?

If your answer is the people that you elected, than you must reject the union scare-tactics and class warfare, and vote YES on Issue 2.

Make sure you get out and vote in two weeks, and vote YES on both Issue 2 and Issue 3.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and others.


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