Quinnipiac University released its latest poll on Issue 2 today. Their poll found that the gap in support has been cut almost in half from their numbers in July. The margin is now 38-51 for/against Issue 2, down from the 32-56 results Quinnipiac found two months ago. This 11 point swing comes after less than two weeks of advertising by Building a Better Ohio to support the reforms. While this result shows momentum for retaining the reforms of Issue 2, a closer look at the poll makes it clear the numbers are even closer than the published results.
Quinnipiac polled any registered Ohio voter, as opposed to likely voters only. Off-year elections like the one this November are noted for having far lower turnout than elections for President or Governor, and people who aren’t likely voters tend to stay home in these elections. It’s an important distinction, as Republicans are more likely voters than Democrats. That isn’t just an opinion, it’s a statement that proves itself in polls routinely, and would almost certainly narrow the results Quinnipiac released today.
Going along with that factor is that Republicans were under-polled. Exit polls from 2010 showed that Republicans and Democrats turned out in even numbers last November. Given the already mentioned higher tendency of Republicans to vote one would assume that Republican voters would make up an equal or greater part of the electorate this year. But Quinnipiac’s sample was only 27% Republican, 10% less than the 37% GOP turnout seen in 2010. There is zero reason to assume such a decline in Republican turnout, and it skews the results further against Issue 2.
There’s also a clear support for the main reforms of Issue 2. Even with Republicans under-sampled, Quinnipiac found overhelming support for most reforms. On asking government employees to contribute 15% toward health-care and 10% for their pensions today’s poll found 59 and 56 percent support, and instituting performance pay had nearly 2-1 support, 60-31 percent. It’s more proof that the more Ohioans find out what’s actually in Issue 2 the more likely they are to support it. Informing people of the real reforms of Issue 2, as Building a Better Ohio has begun to do, is critical to building the momentum.
There’s also growing support for Governor Kasich. Forty percent approve of his performance as Governor, a 5 percent increase from July. Just as with Issue 2, support for Kasich is increasing as people are beginning to see beyond the left’s rhetoric to the actual actions the Governor is taking to repair Ohio’s budget and economy.
Today’s numbers show just how important it is to continue reaching out to Ohioans with the facts behind the reasonable reforms of Issue 2. While the numbers have improved, the wide gap between the overall support for Issue 2 and the issue-by-issue breakdown shows that far too many in Ohio are still being misled by the big union fear mongering We Are Ohio continues to engage in. Today’s numbers also seem to guarantee that the lies and distortions from the left will become more divisive and desperate as they try to hold on to a lead. With 5 more weeks until Election Day (and even less before early voting & absentee balloting) it’s more important than ever to get involved and help Ohioans separate the facts of Issue 2 from the the fictions told by the left.