With Ohio Democratic voters apparently sitting on their hands this election, the party could be headed for an epic defeat in the governor’s race.
Republican Gov. John Kasich leads Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald by a 2-to-1 ratio, the first Dispatch Poll of the 2014 election shows. Kasich is favored 59 percent to 29 percent.
Right on cue, the left wing Ohio blog Plunderbund came out yesterday and thoroughly trashed it. Their main point is that it undersamples Democrats.
The 2010 election saw Kasich win by exactly 2 points. But the Dispatch poll skews toward pro-Kasich voters by 20%! The same is true in nearly every other area, with the Dispatch including more men and more older folks, people who traditionally vote Republican.
Plunderbund makes some valid points. However, they left out a huge one. The final Dispatch poll of 2010.
Let’s go back to 2010. See this post from Plunderbund making almost the exact same arguments to trash the Dispatch poll back then as they are making now.
Of the Dispatch respondents, only 54% said they voted for Strickland in 2006, even though Strickland got 61% of the general election vote—a seven-point undersampling. The Dispatch’s respondents consisted only 45% of people who voted for Obama in 2008, even though Obama carried 51.5%, another nearly seven-point undersampling. In fact, a majority of respondents said they voted for McCain. Despite the fact that the Democrats have an over million voter registration advantage over Republicans, the majority of the Dispatch’s sample was registered Republicans.
That poll they called “crappy” and “completely useless”? It accurately NAILED the result of the 2010 election. It predicted a 49-47 result for Kasich, which is exactly what the actual result was.
The new Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll gives Kasich 49%, Strickland 47%. The survey of likely voters has a Â±2.3% margin of error. In the previous Dispatch poll from early September, Kasich led by 49%-37% — meaning that Kasich’s support has stayed the same, while Strickland has made an enormous net gain.
Four years ago, they trashed this poll that eventually nailed the result. Despite that, they are attacking it again with the same ferocity.
Maybe we should cut ’em some slack. If we had a candidate as bad as Ed Fitzgerald at the top of our ticket, we might feel like lashing out at someone, too.